FinalModel Jean van Haperen

breed [fundamentals fundamental]
breed [feedbacks feedback]
breed [opportunists opportunist]
breed [randomnists randomnist]
breed [learners learner]

fundamentals-own [

  ]

feedbacks-own [
  
  ]

opportunists-own [
  
  ]

learners-own [
 groupie 
 
  ]

turtles-own
[
  donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself
  pricepaid
  pricereceived
  profit
  valuation
  stock
  
  ;new in this model
  bidprice
  askprice
  
  bidyet
  askyet
  option
  traded?
  counttraded
  correctedforilliquidity?
  money 
  valueself


]

globals
[ runtime
  pricet
  pricetmedian
  pricet-1
  pricet-2
  pricet-3
  dividendpaid
  NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn
  NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn
  tradesthisperiod
  tradeslastperiod
  numberofturnsnotrade
  fundamentalvalue
  dividendlist
  dividend
  dividendlastperiod
  sumdividends
  chanceofopportunism
  testvariablereducingopportunism
  LastTradesLessOpportunism
  sdevinpricespaid
]

to setup
  clear-all
  
  
  set-default-shape fundamentals "house"
  set-default-shape feedbacks "person"
  set-default-shape opportunists "pentagon"
  set-default-shape randomnists "arrow"
  set-default-shape opportunists "x"
  
  create-ordered-fundamentals Numberoffundamentals
  [setxy random-ycor random-xcor
    set color white]
  create-ordered-randomnists Numberofrandomnists
  [setxy random-ycor random-xcor
    set color white]
  create-ordered-feedbacks Numberoffeedbacks 
  [setxy random-ycor random-xcor
    set color white]
  create-ordered-opportunists Numberofopportunists
  [setxy random-ycor random-xcor
    set color white]
  create-ordered-learners Numberoflearners
  [setxy random-ycor random-xcor
    set color white]
  
  setup1
  set runtime 0
  set tradesthisperiod 1
  
  set NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn 0
  set  NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn 0
   ask turtles [set valuation 360
    set stock noStocksperTrader]
   
  if record? = 1 [
  let file user-new-file
    if is-string? file
  [
    ;; If the file already exists, we begin by deleting it, otherwise
    ;; new data would be appended to the old contents.
    if file-exists? file
      [ file-delete file ]
    file-open file
    file-type trendvalue
     file-type "," 
    file-type numberoffundamentals 
     file-type "," 
    file-type numberoffeedbacks
     file-type "," 
       file-type numberofopportunists
     file-type ","
     file-type numberofrandomnists
     file-type ","
      file-type numberoflearners
     file-type ","
    file-type changeinfundamentalvalue
     file-type "," 
    file-type dividendfunction
     file-type "," 
     file-type bidspread
     file-type "," 
    file-type noStockspertrader
     file-type ","  
     file-type Dividendpayout
     file-type "," 
    file-type timePeriods
    file-type  "," 
    file-print  "-"
    file-print " " 
    ;; record the initial turtle data
   
  ]]
end 

to setup1
  reset-ticks
  set sumdividends 0
  set runtime runtime + 1
  set pricet 360 ; changed in v10
  set pricet-1 360; changed in v10
  set pricet-2 360
  set pricet-3 360
  ask turtles
  [set donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself 0]
  ask learners
  [set donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself 1]
  set fundamentalvalue 360
  set numberofturnsnotrade 0
  ask turtles [set correctedforilliquidity? 0]
  ask turtles [set valuation 360
    set stock noStocksperTrader
    set money 10000
    set valueself money
    ]
  set dividendpaid 1
 
  ask turtles [set profit 0
    ]
  set dividendlist [36 4 -16 -24
    ]
  
  if dividendpayout = 1 [set dividendpaid dividendpaid * -1]
  if dividendpayout = 2 [set dividendpaid 0]
  ifelse dividendpaid = 1 
  [set dividend one-of dividendlist]
  [set dividend 0]

   setup-plots ; changed in v10
  update-plots ; changed in v10
end 

to go 
  
  if ticks >= timePeriods and runtime >= 999 [stop]
  if ticks >= timePeriods [setup1]
  ask turtles [set correctedforilliquidity? 0
    set pricepaid 0
    ]
  ask learners [set groupie 0]
  set sdevinpricespaid 0
  ifelse tradesthisperiod = 0 [set numberofturnsnotrade numberofturnsnotrade + 1][set numberofturnsnotrade 0]
  set tradesthisperiod 0
  set tradeslastperiod tradesthisperiod
  set tradesthisperiod 0
  ask turtles [set  traded? 0
    set counttraded 0]
  set NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn 0
  set NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn 0 
  set dividendlastperiod dividend
  timedevelopprices
  
  
  if ticks > 0 [set sumdividends sumdividends + dividend]
  set fundamentalvalue fundamentalvalue + changeinfundamentalvalue
  ask fundamentals [valuatefundamental]
  ask feedbacks [valuatefeedback]
  ask randomnists [valuaterandomnists]
  ask opportunists [valuateopportunist]
  ask learners [valuatelearners]
  ask turtles[if tradeslastperiod = 0 [correctvaluationforliquidity]]
  ask turtles [recolor]
  if dividendpayout = 1 [set dividendpaid dividendpaid * -1]
  ifelse dividendpaid = 1 
  [set dividend one-of dividendlist]
  [set dividend 0]
  
  ;new in this model
  ask turtles [set bidyet 0
    set askyet 0]
  remove-links
  
  ask-concurrent turtles [if valuation > pricet-1 [without-interruption [bidp]]]
  ask-concurrent turtles [if valuation < pricet-1 and stock > 0 [without-interruption [askp]]]
 ; ask-concurrent turtles [if valuation = pricet-1
  ;  [ifelse random-float 1 <= 0.5 [without-interruption[bidp]][if stock > 0 [without-interruption[askp]]]]]
  
  ;foreach sort-by [[valuation] of ?1 > [size] of ?2] turtles with [bidyet = 1]
  ;
  without-interruption [ask-concurrent turtles [ without-interruption 
  [trade] ] ] ; giving the initiative to those who want to buy, with the highest valuation first


  if tradesthisperiod > 1 [set sdevinpricespaid standard-deviation [pricepaid] of turtles with [pricepaid != 0]]
  ask turtles [if ticks > 0 [set profit profit + dividend * stock]]
  remove-links
  setprice
  ask turtles [determinevalue]
  
   if record? = 1 [ record

 ]
  
  tick
end 

to timedevelopprices  
  set pricet-3 pricet-2
  set pricet-2 pricet-1
  set pricet-1 pricet
end 

to valuateopportunist
 Chancify
   ifelse 
   pricet-1 - pricet-2 > 0
   and pricet-1 > fundamentalvalue
  [ifelse
   random-float 1 < ChanceOfOpportunism
   [set valuation pricet-1 + random-normal 50 20]
   [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]]
  [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]
  
  if NoOpportunists? = 1 [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]
end 

to valuaterandomnists
  set valuation pricet-1 + random-normal 0 2 * SDEV
  if NoRandomnists? = 1 [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]
end 

to valuatelearners
  
  if [valueself] of max-one-of opportunists [valueself] = max [valueself] of turtles with [donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself = 0]
    [valuateopportunist
    set groupie 1
    set shape "pentagon"
    ]
  if [valueself] of max-one-of randomnists [valueself] = max [valueself] of turtles with [donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself = 0]
  [valuaterandomnists
    set groupie 2
    set shape "arrow"
    ]
  if [valueself] of max-one-of feedbacks [valueself] = max [valueself] of turtles with [donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself = 0]
  [valuatefeedback
    set groupie 3
    set shape "person"
  ]
    
  if [valueself] of max-one-of fundamentals [valueself] = max [valueself] of turtles with [donottakeintoaccountinvaluationself = 0]
  [valuatefundamental
    set groupie 4  
    set shape "house"]
 if NoLearners? = 1 [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]
end 

to Chancify 
   if ticks > 10 [set testvariablereducingopportunism testvariablereducingopportunism + 1]
   set LastTradesLessOpportunism 1 - 0.25 * testvariablereducingopportunism 
   let profitfromcapitalgains (pricet-1 - pricet-3)
   let profitfromdividends dividend + dividendlastperiod
   
   if profitfromdividends > profitfromcapitalgains [set ChanceOfOpportunism 0 * LastTradesLessOpportunism]
   
   ifelse profitfromdividends != 0 
   [if profitfromdividends <= profitfromcapitalgains [set ChanceOfOpportunism (profitfromcapitalgains / profitfromdividends - 1) * LastTradesLessOpportunism]]
   [set ChanceOfOpportunism 0]
   
   if ChanceOfOpportunism > 0.8 [set ChanceOfOpportunism 0.8 * LastTradesLessOpportunism]
end 

to valuatefundamental
    set valuation  fundamentalvalue  + dividend * dividendfunction + random-normal 0 SDEV
    if NoFundamentals? = 1 [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]
end 

to valuatefeedback
  set valuation trendvalue * (pricet-1 - pricet-2) + pricet-1 + random-normal 0 SDEV
  if NoFeedbacks? = 1 [set valuation fundamentalvalue + random-normal 0 SDEV]
end 

to remove-links
  ask-concurrent links [die]
end 

to bidp
  set bidprice bidspread * (valuation - pricet-1) + pricet-1
  set bidyet 1
  set pricepaid 0
end 

to askp
  set askprice bidspread * (valuation - pricet-1) + pricet-1
  set askyet 1
  set pricepaid 0
end 

to trade
  
  set option random 2
  let valuationself valuation
  if option = 1 
  [if traded? = 0[
    if any? turtles with [askyet  = 1 and askprice < valuationself and stock > 0 and self != myself]
  [buyfromasker
  exchangewithasker
  determinepricewithasker
  removeask]]
  ]
  
  
  if option = 1
  [  if traded? = 0
   [ 
     if any? turtles with [bidyet  = 1 and bidprice > valuationself and stock > 0 and self != myself]
  [selltobidder
  exchangewithbidder
  determinepricewithbidder
  removebid]]
  ]
 
  if option = 0
  [if traded? = 0
   [
      if any? turtles with [bidyet  = 1 and bidprice > valuationself and stock > 0 and self != myself]
  [selltobidder
  exchangewithbidder
  determinepricewithbidder
  removebid]]
   ]
   
   if option = 0
  [if traded? = 0
  [if any? turtles with [askyet  = 1  and askprice < valuationself and stock > 0 and self != myself]
  [buyfromasker
  exchangewithasker
  determinepricewithasker
  removeask]]
  ]
  
 
 ; create-links
  ;if not notlinked? [exchange-stocks]
  ;if notlinked? [set pricepaid 0]
  ;remove-links
end  

to buyfromasker
  let valuationself valuation
  create-link-with one-of turtles with [askyet  = 1 and askprice < valuationself and stock > 0 and self != myself]
end 

to selltobidder
  let valuationself valuation
  create-link-with one-of turtles with [bidyet  = 1 and bidprice > valuationself and self != myself]
end 

to create-links
  without-interruption [ask turtles with [bidyet = 1 and notlinked?] 
 [if any? turtles with [askyet = 1 and notlinked?]
 [create-link-with one-of turtles with [askyet = 1 and notlinked?]]]]
end 

to exchangewithasker
  set stock stock + 1
  set tradesthisperiod tradesthisperiod + 1
  ask link-neighbors [set stock stock - 1
    set counttraded 1]
  set traded? 1
  set counttraded 1
  set NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn + 2
  set NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn + 1
end 

to exchangewithbidder
  set stock stock - 1
  set tradesthisperiod tradesthisperiod + 1
  ask link-neighbors [set stock stock + 1
    set counttraded 1]
  set traded? 1
  set counttraded 1
  set NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn + 2
  set NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn + 1
end 

to determinepricewithasker
 let pricedeterminant [askprice] of one-of link-neighbors with [self != myself];one-of link-neighbors
 set pricepaid pricedeterminant
 set money money - pricepaid
 ask one-of link-neighbors with [self != myself] [set money money + askprice]
 calculate-profits
end 

to determinepricewithbidder
let pricedeterminant [bidprice] of one-of link-neighbors with [self != myself];one-of link-neighbors
 set pricepaid pricedeterminant 
 set money money + pricepaid
 ask one-of link-neighbors with [self != myself] [set money money - bidprice]
 calculate-profits 
end 

to removeask
  ask one-of link-neighbors [set askyet 0]
  ask one-of links [die]
end 

to removebid
  ask one-of link-neighbors [set bidyet 0]
  ask one-of links [die]
end 

to calculate-profits
  set profit profit + 360 - pricepaid
  ask one-of link-neighbors with [self != myself] [set profit profit + [pricepaid] of one-of link-neighbors with [self != myself] - 360]
end 

to-report notlinked?
   report (count link-neighbors < 1) 
end 

to setprice
  ifelse tradesthisperiod != 0 [set pricet mean [pricepaid] of turtles with [traded? = 1]][set pricet mean [valuation] of turtles with [stock > 0]]  ; check this ifelse command!
  ifelse tradesthisperiod != 0 [set pricetmedian median [pricepaid] of turtles with [traded? = 1]][set pricetmedian median [valuation] of turtles with [stock > 0]]
end 

to correctvaluationforliquidity
 
  if stock > 0 [set valuation
    0.2 * numberofturnsnotrade * fundamentalvalue + (1 - (numberofturnsnotrade * 0.2)) * valuation
    set correctedforilliquidity? 1]
end 

to determinevalue
  if ticks > 0 [set money money + stock * dividend]
  set valueself money + pricet * stock
end 

to recolor
    if valuation > pricet-1
    [set color blue]
    if valuation < pricet-1
    [set color red]
     if valuation = pricet-1
    [set color white]
end 

to record
     file-type ticks 
 file-type "," 
 file-type pricet
 file-type ","
 file-type mean [valuation] of fundamentals
 file-type "," 
 file-type mean [valuation] of feedbacks
 file-type "," 
 file-type mean [valuation] of opportunists
  file-type "," 
 file-type mean [valuation] of learners
  file-type "," 
 file-type mean [valuation] of randomnists
 file-type "," 
 file-type dividend
 file-type "," 
  file-type  numberofturnsnotrade
  file-type "," 
  file-type  NumberOfTradersWhoTradedThisTurn
  file-type "," 
  file-type  NumberOfStocksTradedThisTurn
  file-type "," 
  file-type sum [valueself] of fundamentals
  file-type "," 
  file-type sum [valueself] of feedbacks
  file-type "," 
  file-type sum [valueself] of opportunists
  file-type "," 
  file-type sum [valueself] of learners
  file-type ","
  file-type sum [valueself] of randomnists
  file-type ","
  file-type mean [groupie] of learners
  file-type ","
   file-type count turtles with [counttraded = 1] 
  file-type ","
  file-type count turtles with [bidyet = 1]
  file-type "," 
  file-type count turtles with [askyet = 1]
  file-type ","
  file-type fundamentalvalue
  file-type ","  
  file-type sdevinpricespaid
  file-type ","  
   file-type pricetmedian
  file-type ","
  file-print SDEV
end