A model for purchase of votes at elections in Brazil

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WHAT IS IT?

This model is our first try to emulate an election with purchase votes, some that occur in some regions of Brazil.

HOW IT WORKS

We generate a virtual city with 2500 residences and 10.000 voters distributed among them. We also have two candidates; each will support different kind of proposals. The voters in our have setup preferences, and they will vote accordingly with that, but during the period of run the candidate may have the opportunity to buy votes, and doing they will change the original preferences and by this way possibly change the outcome of the election.

HOW TO USE IT

The first setup was made thinking as about Brazil, so the start situation will be setup an city with the average Brazilian numbers. You just need to click at the setup bottom. After, you may click at the Go!, and the will start a sequence of elections.

THINGS TO NOTICE

With no purchase votes the candidate that should election is what we called the "B Candidate". When we introduce the purchase yet do not occur victories of the other candidate, the Candidate A. But, when we increase the value of the offer that the candidate made for the voters intention the results change. Also, value to be noted, the number of residencies the candidate can visit by day has also a great impact into the final results. Yet, we introduce a memory parameter, that is, the voters can recovery their own preferences at the end of which electoral cycle, is like the voter is smart and recovery their initial preferences, something like educate people x uneducated ones.

THINGS TO TRY

You may try to setup the model to your own city, or country. The model shows it is easier to change election when the people are young, and or, have low level of schooling.

Comments and Questions

Is the model running? (Question)

Wanted to find out if the model running?

Posted over 7 years ago

Answer Nelson Yego

Hello Yeog We published a paper using this model, will be available next month. And we are currently working on a new version, using the last NetLogo version. You may contact us by email if you need any help or more information: elder0055@gmail.com

Posted over 7 years ago
Click to Run Model 

breed [ Eleitores  Eleitor   ]
breed [ Candidatos Candidato ]
breed [ Casas      Casa      ]

Globals [
  Faixa_Etaria_01
  Faixa_Etaria_02
  Faixa_Etaria_03
  Faixa_Etaria_04
  Votos_Candidato_A
  Votos_Candidato_B
  Try_Buy_A
  Try_Buy_B
  Total_Vitoria_A
  Total_Vitoria_B
  ]

Eleitores-own [
  Faixa_Etaria?
  Saude
  Educacao
  Emprego
  Red_Imposto
  Vendeu_Voto?
  ]

Candidatos-own [
  Saude?
  Educacao?
  Emprego?
  Red_Imposto?
  Vencedor?
  ]

to Setup

  clear-all

  set Try_Buy_A       0
  set Try_Buy_B       0
  set Faixa_Etaria_01 [ .35 .65 ]
  set Faixa_Etaria_02 [ .20 .80 ]
  set Faixa_Etaria_03 [ .50 .50 ]
  set Faixa_Etaria_04 [ .65 .35 ]
  set Total_Vitoria_A 0
  set Total_Vitoria_B 0


  create-Candidatos 1 [

    setxy            random 50 random 50
    set color        blue
    set shape        "person"
    set size         2
    set Saude?       true
    set Educacao?    true
    set Emprego?     false
    set Red_Imposto? false

    ]

    create-Candidatos 1 [

    setxy            random 50 random 50
    set color        red
    set shape        "person"
    set size         2
    set Saude?       false
    set Educacao?    false
    set Emprego?     true
    set Red_Imposto? true

    ]

  let ii 0
  while [ ii < 50 ] [
    let j 0
    while [ j < 50 ] [
      create-Casas 1 [
        setxy ii j
        set shape "house"
        set size .5
        set color white
        ]
      set j j + 1
      ]
    set ii ii + 1
    ]

  create-Eleitores Total_Eleitores [
    set          Color   random-float 100
    setxy        random  50 random 50
    set          shape   "person"
    set          size    1
    let i        random-float 1
    ifelse i < %_Faixa_Etaria_01 [

      set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_01
      set Saude         0.10
      set Educacao      0.25
      set Emprego       0.40
      set Red_Imposto   0.25
      set Vendeu_Voto?  false

      ] [

      ifelse i < (%_Faixa_Etaria_01 + %_Faixa_Etaria_02) [

        set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_02
        set Saude         0.10
        set Educacao      0.10
        set Emprego       0.40
        set Red_Imposto   0.40
        set Vendeu_Voto?  false

        ] [

        ifelse i < (%_Faixa_Etaria_01 + %_Faixa_Etaria_02 + %_Faixa_Etaria_03) [

          set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_03
          set Saude         0.25
          set Educacao      0.25
          set Emprego       0.25
          set Red_Imposto   0.25
          set Vendeu_Voto?  false

          ] [

        set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_04
        set Saude         0.40
        set Educacao      0.25
        set Emprego       0.25
        set Red_Imposto   0.10
        set Vendeu_Voto?  false

          ]; end ifelse i < .83

        ]; end ifelse i < .37

      ];end ifelelse < 0.15

    ];end create-eleitores



  reset-ticks
end 

to Go!

  if not Eleição_Justa? [

    ifelse So_Perd_Compra? [

      ask Candidato 0 [
        let V 0
        while [ V < Nr_Casas ] [
        setxy random 50 random 50
        if Votos_Candidato_A != Votos_Candidato_B [
          ifelse Votos_Candidato_A > Votos_Candidato_B [ set Vencedor? true ] [
            set Vencedor? false
            ask Eleitores-here [
              if not Vendeu_Voto? [
                let F min          list          1 ((first Faixa_Etaria?) + (ValorPropina / 100))
                let L max          list          0 ((last  Faixa_Etaria?) - (ValorPropina / 100))
                set Faixa_Etaria?  replace-item  0 Faixa_Etaria? F
                set Faixa_Etaria?  replace-item  1 Faixa_Etaria? L
                set Vendeu_Voto?   true
                set Try_Buy_A      Try_Buy_A + 1
              ];end if vendeu voto
              ];end ask eleitores here

            ]
        ]
        set V V + 1
        ];end While
      ];end ask who 1

      ask Candidato 1 [
        let V 0
        while [ V < Nr_Casas ] [
        setxy random 50 random 50
        if Votos_Candidato_A != Votos_Candidato_B [
          ifelse Votos_Candidato_A > Votos_Candidato_B [
            set Vencedor? false

            ask Eleitores-here [
              if not Vendeu_Voto? [
                let F max         list          0 ((first Faixa_Etaria?) - (ValorPropina / 100))
                let L min         list          1 ((last  Faixa_Etaria?) + (ValorPropina / 100))
                set Faixa_Etaria? replace-item  0 Faixa_Etaria? F
                set Faixa_Etaria? replace-item  1 Faixa_Etaria? L
                set Vendeu_Voto?  true
                set Try_Buy_B     Try_Buy_B + 1
              ];end in not vendeu voto
            ];end ask eleitores here

            ] [ set Vencedor? true ]
        ]
        set V V + 1
        ];end while
      ];end ask who 2


  ];end olny loser buying votes
  [ ;now both Candidates try to buying votes

    ask Candidato 0 [
      let V 0
      while [ V < Nr_Casas ] [
      setxy random 50 random 50

          ask Eleitores-here [
            if not Vendeu_Voto? [
              let F min         list          1 ((first Faixa_Etaria?) + (ValorPropina / 100))
              let L max         list          0 ((last  Faixa_Etaria?) - (ValorPropina / 100))
              set Faixa_Etaria? replace-item  0 Faixa_Etaria? F
              set Faixa_Etaria? replace-item  1 Faixa_Etaria? L
              set Vendeu_Voto?  true
              set Try_Buy_A     Try_Buy_A + 1
          ]
      ];end ask eleitores here
          set V V + 1
      ];end While
    ];end ask Candidato 0

    ask Candidato 1 [
      let V 0
      while [ V < Nr_Casas ] [
      setxy random 50 random 50

          ask Eleitores-here [
            if not Vendeu_Voto? [
              let F max          list          0 ((first Faixa_Etaria?) - (ValorPropina / 100))
              let L min          list          1 ((last  Faixa_Etaria?) + (ValorPropina / 100))
              set Faixa_Etaria?  replace-item  0 Faixa_Etaria? F
              set Faixa_Etaria?  replace-item  1 Faixa_Etaria? L
              set Vendeu_Voto?   true
              set Try_Buy_B      Try_Buy_B + 1
          ]
      ];end ask eleitores here
          set V V + 1
      ];end while
    ];end ask Candidato 1
  ];end ifelse Somente candidato perdedor
  ];end if not eleicao justa


;******************************************************  computando resultado das eleições  **************************************************************************************

if (ticks mod Proxima_eleicao = 0) [

  let Votos_Candidato_A? 0
  let Votos_Candidato_B? 0
  set Try_Buy_A          0
  set Try_Buy_B          0
  set Total_Vitoria_A    0
  set Total_Vitoria_B    0

  ask Eleitores [

    set Vendeu_Voto?  false
    let i random-float 1

    ifelse i < first Faixa_Etaria? [ set Votos_Candidato_A?  Votos_Candidato_A? + 1 ] [ set Votos_Candidato_B? Votos_Candidato_B? + 1 ]; end ifelse

    if Eleitores_Com_Memoria? [

      ifelse i < %_Faixa_Etaria_01 [

        set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_01
        set Saude         0.10
        set Educacao      0.25
        set Emprego       0.40
        set Red_Imposto   0.25
        set Vendeu_Voto?  false

      ] [

      ifelse i < (%_Faixa_Etaria_01 + %_Faixa_Etaria_02) [

        set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_02
        set Saude         0.10
        set Educacao      0.10
        set Emprego       0.40
        set Red_Imposto   0.40
        set Vendeu_Voto?  false

      ] [

      ifelse i < (%_Faixa_Etaria_01 + %_Faixa_Etaria_02 + %_Faixa_Etaria_03) [

        set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_03
        set Saude         0.25
        set Educacao      0.25
        set Emprego       0.25
        set Red_Imposto   0.25
        set Vendeu_Voto?  false

      ] [

      set Faixa_Etaria? Faixa_Etaria_04
      set Saude         0.40
      set Educacao      0.25
      set Emprego       0.25
      set Red_Imposto   0.10
      set Vendeu_Voto?  false

      ]; end ifelse i < .83

      ]; end ifelse i < .37

      ];end ifelelse < 0.15

      ]; end Eleitores_Com_Memoria

  ];end ask eleitores

  set Votos_Candidato_A Votos_Candidato_A?
  set Votos_Candidato_B Votos_Candidato_B?

  ifelse Votos_Candidato_A > Votos_Candidato_B [ output-print "Eleito Candidato A" set Total_Vitoria_A Total_Vitoria_A + 1 ]
  [ output-print "Eleito Candidato B" set Total_Vitoria_B Total_Vitoria_B + 1 ]

];end if ticks mod 100



  tick
end

There is only one version of this model, created over 9 years ago by elder silva.

Attached files

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