UP election 2019

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Default-person Vishesh Agarwal (Author)
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Model was written in NetLogo 5.0 • Viewed 234 times • Downloaded 22 times • Run 0 times
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WHAT IS IT?

This simple model predicts the outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha election for the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) in India.

HOW IT WORKS

In 2014, the BJP achieved a landslide victory in UP winning 71 out of 80 seats, up from a meagre 10 out of 80 seats in 2009, increasing its vote share by an average of 15 per cent per district. Using this fact, this model assumes that the vote share received by the BJP in 2009 is its 'core vote share' while the difference between BJP's vote shares in 2009 and 2014 is its 'flexible vote share'.

On the other side, the three rival parties of the BJP saw a sharp decrease in their votes shares in the 2014 elections in almost all districts. Using this fact, this model assumes that the vote shares of the rival parties in 2014 was their 'core vote share'.The 'flexible vote share' for each of the rival parties is zero in 2014. In other words, all the flexible vote share was taken up by the BJP.

The model uses two parameters: anti-incumbency and opposition unity.

Anti-incumbency ranges between 0 and 1 and shows the extent of loss of the flexible vote share of the BJP. Setting anti-incumbency to 0 means that the BJP retains the entire flexible vote share, while setting it to 1 means that the BJP loses its entire flexible vote share. The flexible vote share lost by the BJP is divided equally among the rival parties.

Opposition unity is a boolean variable. When opposition unity is switched on, only the rival party with the highest core vote share amongst themselves contests the election against the BJP and captures the difference in BJP's flexible vote share. The other two parties transfer all their votes to the rival party contesting the elctions. When opposition unity is switched off, the model runs as before.

HOW TO USE IT

Click the setup button to start the model. The screen will show the distribution of seats in 2014.

Set the anti-incumbency level using the slider.

Set opposition unity using the switch.

Click go to run the model and observe the outcome.

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Copyright, Vishesh Agarwal, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model 

globals
[
BJPseats
Conseats
SPseats
BSPseats
]


patches-own
[
  corevoteBJP
  corevoteCon
  corevoteSP
  corevoteBSP
  flexvoteBJPbefore
  flexvoteBJPafter
  flexvoteConbefore
  flexvoteConafter
  flexvoteSPbefore
  flexvoteSPafter
  flexvoteBSPbefore
  flexvoteBSPafter
  tvoteBJPbefore
  tvoteBJPafter
  tvoteConbefore
  tvoteConafter
  tvoteSPbefore
  tvoteSPafter
  tvoteBSPbefore
  tvoteBSPafter
  tvotebefore
  tvoteafter
  MP
]

to setup 
  ca

ask patch 0 0 [set corevoteBJP 32.1792170274568]
ask patch 1 0 [set corevoteBJP 22.6354189404613]
ask patch 2 0 [set corevoteBJP 19.0987286776674]
ask patch 3 0 [set corevoteBJP 12.6528884637809]
ask patch 4 0 [set corevoteBJP 31.2958387804392]
ask patch 5 0 [set corevoteBJP 6.30562279061492]
ask patch 6 0 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 7 0 [set corevoteBJP 36.1021836697594]
ask patch 8 0 [set corevoteBJP 28.0820727817377]
ask patch 9 0 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 0 1 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 1 1 [set corevoteBJP 15.1037628422758]
ask patch 2 1 [set corevoteBJP 22.2921973427784]
ask patch 3 1 [set corevoteBJP 14.9751006995601]
ask patch 4 1 [set corevoteBJP 39.3041489268388]
ask patch 5 1 [set corevoteBJP 6.81635373336704]
ask patch 6 1 [set corevoteBJP 30.7443742032453]
ask patch 7 1 [set corevoteBJP 18.1878842614576]
ask patch 8 1 [set corevoteBJP 10.8872025995457]
ask patch 9 1 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 0 2 [set corevoteBJP 26.2325110939105]
ask patch 1 2 [set corevoteBJP 14.2652675335589]
ask patch 2 2 [set corevoteBJP 27.8717451113345]
ask patch 3 2 [set corevoteBJP 3.49644671727319]
ask patch 4 2 [set corevoteBJP 25.755280787432]
ask patch 5 2 [set corevoteBJP 16.4905697639972]
ask patch 6 2 [set corevoteBJP 17.1443964118342]
ask patch 7 2 [set corevoteBJP 23.1007477815003]
ask patch 8 2 [set corevoteBJP 21.1804669845045]
ask patch 9 2 [set corevoteBJP 19.1819108639253]
ask patch 0 3 [set corevoteBJP 22.9479928163168]
ask patch 1 3 [set corevoteBJP 16.5235939772798]
ask patch 2 3 [set corevoteBJP 32.3473208539809]
ask patch 3 3 [set corevoteBJP 44.4678685934094]
ask patch 4 3 [set corevoteBJP 3.04922752621232]
ask patch 5 3 [set corevoteBJP 15.2238734419942]
ask patch 6 3 [set corevoteBJP 19.3894320492465]
ask patch 7 3 [set corevoteBJP 57.5241594213498]
ask patch 8 3 [set corevoteBJP 20.4728745226155]
ask patch 9 3 [set corevoteBJP 9.83732932883313]
ask patch 0 4 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 1 4 [set corevoteBJP 17.1939601641226]
ask patch 2 4 [set corevoteBJP 21.4538532108719]
ask patch 3 4 [set corevoteBJP 17.5359025851621]
ask patch 4 4 [set corevoteBJP 36.9552000204081]
ask patch 5 4 [set corevoteBJP 23.4698665690548]
ask patch 6 4 [set corevoteBJP 21.2334339214737]
ask patch 7 4 [set corevoteBJP 39.6626231073634]
ask patch 8 4 [set corevoteBJP 28.5127646424119]
ask patch 9 4 [set corevoteBJP 24.0351462409522]
ask patch 0 5 [set corevoteBJP 25.1754406388973]
ask patch 1 5 [set corevoteBJP 32.1111940155733]
ask patch 2 5 [set corevoteBJP 36.2851886513819]
ask patch 3 5 [set corevoteBJP 24.2663617492642]
ask patch 4 5 [set corevoteBJP 22.5617603072923]
ask patch 5 5 [set corevoteBJP 8.38674763994949]
ask patch 6 5 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 7 5 [set corevoteBJP 35.0809962631063]
ask patch 8 5 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 9 5 [set corevoteBJP 10.624207825219]
ask patch 0 6 [set corevoteBJP 15.8956795408789]
ask patch 1 6 [set corevoteBJP 34.5678690396617]
ask patch 2 6 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 3 6 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 4 6 [set corevoteBJP 10.3543933643925]
ask patch 5 6 [set corevoteBJP 53.2362660791699]
ask patch 6 6 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 7 6 [set corevoteBJP 4.12564204513182]
ask patch 8 6 [set corevoteBJP 10.4747014381383]
ask patch 9 6 [set corevoteBJP 19.2313359709421]
ask patch 0 7 [set corevoteBJP 12.6893352370597]
ask patch 1 7 [set corevoteBJP 0]
ask patch 2 7 [set corevoteBJP 18.8366502897205]
ask patch 3 7 [set corevoteBJP 30.3823631303335]
ask patch 4 7 [set corevoteBJP 27.5254485464627]
ask patch 5 7 [set corevoteBJP 9.21496983314529]
ask patch 6 7 [set corevoteBJP 12.3317829644907]
ask patch 7 7 [set corevoteBJP 6.78904522413401]
ask patch 8 7 [set corevoteBJP 6.04692275743086]
ask patch 9 7 [set corevoteBJP 35.0533392973409]
ask patch 0 0 [set corevoteCon 3.36004923262124]
ask patch 1 0 [set corevoteCon 10.4339439655172]
ask patch 2 0 [set corevoteCon 6.07620609889226]
ask patch 3 0 [set corevoteCon 12.3428278162689]
ask patch 4 0 [set corevoteCon 2.31919683998611]
ask patch 5 0 [set corevoteCon 53.2711523044133]
ask patch 6 0 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 7 0 [set corevoteCon 9.72203520445473]
ask patch 8 0 [set corevoteCon 1.99027371530326]
ask patch 9 0 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 0 1 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 1 1 [set corevoteCon 2.74250278506487]
ask patch 2 1 [set corevoteCon 1.83620371919316]
ask patch 3 1 [set corevoteCon 4.61166392357598]
ask patch 4 1 [set corevoteCon 6.09989503485998]
ask patch 5 1 [set corevoteCon 23.689129057737]
ask patch 6 1 [set corevoteCon 8.54006670770404]
ask patch 7 1 [set corevoteCon 2.78619598114412]
ask patch 8 1 [set corevoteCon 2.47909468509688]
ask patch 9 1 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 0 2 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 1 2 [set corevoteCon 3.01200749180653]
ask patch 2 2 [set corevoteCon 4.12041675671074]
ask patch 3 2 [set corevoteCon 17.0982886112403]
ask patch 4 2 [set corevoteCon 11.6403367516648]
ask patch 5 2 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 6 2 [set corevoteCon 1.46808876693474]
ask patch 7 2 [set corevoteCon 13.3591981828109]
ask patch 8 2 [set corevoteCon 10.9573692129842]
ask patch 9 2 [set corevoteCon 4.60768237176761]
ask patch 0 3 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 1 3 [set corevoteCon 0.688604233339467]
ask patch 2 3 [set corevoteCon 1.1261277204209]
ask patch 3 3 [set corevoteCon 15.5493737462117]
ask patch 4 3 [set corevoteCon 2.2457150526332]
ask patch 5 3 [set corevoteCon 2.41805951819084]
ask patch 6 3 [set corevoteCon 13.155057648418]
ask patch 7 3 [set corevoteCon 4.62929398684895]
ask patch 8 3 [set corevoteCon 8.7351560188261]
ask patch 9 3 [set corevoteCon 2.47982969664715]
ask patch 0 4 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 1 4 [set corevoteCon 7.71992133228542]
ask patch 2 4 [set corevoteCon 5.27400555041628]
ask patch 3 4 [set corevoteCon 6.67801256678886]
ask patch 4 4 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 5 4 [set corevoteCon 6.4574663998227]
ask patch 6 4 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 7 4 [set corevoteCon 31.25900928585]
ask patch 8 4 [set corevoteCon 3.73693303270768]
ask patch 9 4 [set corevoteCon 17.8420733044016]
ask patch 0 5 [set corevoteCon 31.6580968711437]
ask patch 1 5 [set corevoteCon 2.59673219950306]
ask patch 2 5 [set corevoteCon 29.706608645665]
ask patch 3 5 [set corevoteCon 3.89247226445848]
ask patch 4 5 [set corevoteCon 5.87321946245249]
ask patch 5 5 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 6 5 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 7 5 [set corevoteCon 3.94291678994695]
ask patch 8 5 [set corevoteCon 31.8730140172282]
ask patch 9 5 [set corevoteCon 3.42525690721308]
ask patch 0 6 [set corevoteCon 4.96162611687998]
ask patch 1 6 [set corevoteCon 1.85517209607558]
ask patch 2 6 [set corevoteCon 1.19855954210708]
ask patch 3 6 [set corevoteCon 0]
ask patch 4 6 [set corevoteCon 6.31364340900031]
ask patch 5 6 [set corevoteCon 2.88151784241301]
ask patch 6 6 [set corevoteCon 29.7280256662106]
ask patch 7 6 [set corevoteCon 68.9240993574133]
ask patch 8 6 [set corevoteCon 16.8013753276443]
ask patch 9 6 [set corevoteCon 10.9416256310768]
ask patch 0 7 [set corevoteCon 34.9026187937771]
ask patch 1 7 [set corevoteCon 5.55819452221288]
ask patch 2 7 [set corevoteCon 1.62949804061855]
ask patch 3 7 [set corevoteCon 2.55555658674438]
ask patch 4 7 [set corevoteCon 2.49027574564909]
ask patch 5 7 [set corevoteCon 2.43704859601102]
ask patch 6 7 [set corevoteCon 3.00245837627497]
ask patch 7 7 [set corevoteCon 4.6037979167055]
ask patch 8 7 [set corevoteCon 17.5234203645371]
ask patch 9 7 [set corevoteCon 9.91651213236355]
ask patch 0 0 [set corevoteSP 12.9937851532394]
ask patch 1 0 [set corevoteSP 15.8407327586207]
ask patch 2 0 [set corevoteSP 21.9380958751912]
ask patch 3 0 [set corevoteSP 30.3306624452902]
ask patch 4 0 [set corevoteSP 23.8759659925806]
ask patch 5 0 [set corevoteSP 0]
ask patch 6 0 [set corevoteSP 34.8852596023261]
ask patch 7 0 [set corevoteSP 28.1194390986135]
ask patch 8 0 [set corevoteSP 37.7327067944286]
ask patch 9 0 [set corevoteSP 50.4746896337993]
ask patch 0 1 [set corevoteSP 27.4270152421526]
ask patch 1 1 [set corevoteSP 37.8170257304057]
ask patch 2 1 [set corevoteSP 29.965169115437]
ask patch 3 1 [set corevoteSP 23.8736970319256]
ask patch 4 1 [set corevoteSP 16.0908429952621]
ask patch 5 1 [set corevoteSP 15.570527007265]
ask patch 6 1 [set corevoteSP 28.1487648730901]
ask patch 7 1 [set corevoteSP 32.6331178049532]
ask patch 8 1 [set corevoteSP 26.2167036046979]
ask patch 9 1 [set corevoteSP 28.1652734587888]
ask patch 0 2 [set corevoteSP 14.0594455159218]
ask patch 1 2 [set corevoteSP 22.6111005889109]
ask patch 2 2 [set corevoteSP 16.4646405113194]
ask patch 3 2 [set corevoteSP 23.4016788908721]
ask patch 4 2 [set corevoteSP 23.0883345640736]
ask patch 5 2 [set corevoteSP 30.9200502887995]
ask patch 6 2 [set corevoteSP 29.2258919266624]
ask patch 7 2 [set corevoteSP 21.4897618589786]
ask patch 8 2 [set corevoteSP 29.3242059195919]
ask patch 9 2 [set corevoteSP 17.7752019100103]
ask patch 0 3 [set corevoteSP 23.8840967062092]
ask patch 1 3 [set corevoteSP 49.4314645993437]
ask patch 2 3 [set corevoteSP 28.2695486286849]
ask patch 3 3 [set corevoteSP 8.69949169480872]
ask patch 4 3 [set corevoteSP 32.5998059287923]
ask patch 5 3 [set corevoteSP 20.7675195078501]
ask patch 6 3 [set corevoteSP 25.6307104868403]
ask patch 7 3 [set corevoteSP 22.9185441098742]
ask patch 8 3 [set corevoteSP 20.8913925845695]
ask patch 9 3 [set corevoteSP 29.4351250665247]
ask patch 0 4 [set corevoteSP 19.181302548409]
ask patch 1 4 [set corevoteSP 16.8473503655888]
ask patch 2 4 [set corevoteSP 22.2020351526364]
ask patch 3 4 [set corevoteSP 30.6086760398732]
ask patch 4 4 [set corevoteSP 31.1805716104923]
ask patch 5 4 [set corevoteSP 34.1184530699993]
ask patch 6 4 [set corevoteSP 45.0341832028179]
ask patch 7 4 [set corevoteSP 3.19374139423083]
ask patch 8 4 [set corevoteSP 33.8290533220111]
ask patch 9 4 [set corevoteSP 15.5307711259887]
ask patch 0 5 [set corevoteSP 12.3796732832684]
ask patch 1 5 [set corevoteSP 31.0354219868237]
ask patch 2 5 [set corevoteSP 5.84856230097776]
ask patch 3 5 [set corevoteSP 20.5366943977372]
ask patch 4 5 [set corevoteSP 21.9732530424844]
ask patch 5 5 [set corevoteSP 61.434655356736]
ask patch 6 5 [set corevoteSP 4.67244590879092]
ask patch 7 5 [set corevoteSP 19.4576709124088]
ask patch 8 5 [set corevoteSP 22.7271588493931]
ask patch 9 5 [set corevoteSP 20.1693003776844]
ask patch 0 6 [set corevoteSP 22.8626464018353]
ask patch 1 6 [set corevoteSP 37.3930187538606]
ask patch 2 6 [set corevoteSP 14.8983813841107]
ask patch 3 6 [set corevoteSP 30.9844816045987]
ask patch 4 6 [set corevoteSP 21.2083327449854]
ask patch 5 6 [set corevoteSP 23.6972218133538]
ask patch 6 6 [set corevoteSP 25.7577837158531]
ask patch 7 6 [set corevoteSP 0]
ask patch 8 6 [set corevoteSP 35.9918562735364]
ask patch 9 6 [set corevoteSP 17.2515692068765]
ask patch 0 7 [set corevoteSP 4.51482237620069]
ask patch 1 7 [set corevoteSP 21.1882780344505]
ask patch 2 7 [set corevoteSP 36.0847330850908]
ask patch 3 7 [set corevoteSP 27.8617036579877]
ask patch 4 7 [set corevoteSP 22.3953334642501]
ask patch 5 7 [set corevoteSP 31.6783427192473]
ask patch 6 7 [set corevoteSP 16.1109787184875]
ask patch 7 7 [set corevoteSP 25.0179565993107]
ask patch 8 7 [set corevoteSP 18.551453676266]
ask patch 9 7 [set corevoteSP 5.93975653962067]
ask patch 0 0 [set corevoteBSP 27.3415638495203]
ask patch 1 0 [set corevoteBSP 21.8304956896552]
ask patch 2 0 [set corevoteBSP 22.0934087987389]
ask patch 3 0 [set corevoteBSP 19.5254324682162]
ask patch 4 0 [set corevoteBSP 29.8033341445855]
ask patch 5 0 [set corevoteBSP 7.5237741407742]
ask patch 6 0 [set corevoteBSP 15.3391578018106]
ask patch 7 0 [set corevoteBSP 19.7007393474104]
ask patch 8 0 [set corevoteBSP 29.5522937488774]
ask patch 9 0 [set corevoteBSP 15.8978996983943]
ask patch 0 1 [set corevoteBSP 18.1995488086571]
ask patch 1 1 [set corevoteBSP 10.8824163582132]
ask patch 2 1 [set corevoteBSP 19.2697346678146]
ask patch 3 1 [set corevoteBSP 28.4725263110212]
ask patch 4 1 [set corevoteBSP 27.4983388544355]
ask patch 5 1 [set corevoteBSP 16.3394539895052]
ask patch 6 1 [set corevoteBSP 10.7544623073077]
ask patch 7 1 [set corevoteBSP 28.5684512362845]
ask patch 8 1 [set corevoteBSP 26.9681307891852]
ask patch 9 1 [set corevoteBSP 23.0544513192062]
ask patch 0 2 [set corevoteBSP 19.9283141595916]
ask patch 1 2 [set corevoteBSP 28.5072985303255]
ask patch 2 2 [set corevoteBSP 25.2247827482106]
ask patch 3 2 [set corevoteBSP 23.4666746661467]
ask patch 4 2 [set corevoteBSP 25.7936293010408]
ask patch 5 2 [set corevoteBSP 15.4756557519507]
ask patch 6 2 [set corevoteBSP 21.1281172367012]
ask patch 7 2 [set corevoteBSP 14.583888179942]
ask patch 8 2 [set corevoteBSP 13.1338651668899]
ask patch 9 2 [set corevoteBSP 29.5509616316584]
ask patch 0 3 [set corevoteBSP 28.3706541581185]
ask patch 1 3 [set corevoteBSP 10.995198171366]
ask patch 2 3 [set corevoteBSP 17.540675800509]
ask patch 3 3 [set corevoteBSP 14.0745487175275]
ask patch 4 3 [set corevoteBSP 28.7003286383304]
ask patch 5 3 [set corevoteBSP 29.2673461186483]
ask patch 6 3 [set corevoteBSP 14.9463912167534]
ask patch 7 3 [set corevoteBSP 17.862661274481]
ask patch 8 3 [set corevoteBSP 19.6921496485459]
ask patch 9 3 [set corevoteBSP 29.7134646088345]
ask patch 0 4 [set corevoteBSP 23.1047050078521]
ask patch 1 4 [set corevoteBSP 24.34424947201]
ask patch 2 4 [set corevoteBSP 27.2388529139685]
ask patch 3 4 [set corevoteBSP 16.978506852013]
ask patch 4 4 [set corevoteBSP 15.199298088694]
ask patch 5 4 [set corevoteBSP 16.5063015449275]
ask patch 6 4 [set corevoteBSP 11.7643430435847]
ask patch 7 4 [set corevoteBSP 6.60749249769375]
ask patch 8 4 [set corevoteBSP 23.5802172703581]
ask patch 9 4 [set corevoteBSP 27.9653207673818]
ask patch 0 5 [set corevoteBSP 14.7859294379987]
ask patch 1 5 [set corevoteBSP 27.8288763947385]
ask patch 2 5 [set corevoteBSP 6.63955173831209]
ask patch 3 5 [set corevoteBSP 28.5489099468091]
ask patch 4 5 [set corevoteBSP 23.7302999713491]
ask patch 5 5 [set corevoteBSP 14.7250060051361]
ask patch 6 5 [set corevoteBSP 22.1145197087955]
ask patch 7 5 [set corevoteBSP 27.6259618158863]
ask patch 8 5 [set corevoteBSP 45.3998271333787]
ask patch 9 5 [set corevoteBSP 33.6790521332904]
ask patch 0 6 [set corevoteBSP 29.2292396160348]
ask patch 1 6 [set corevoteBSP 15.1317997670223]
ask patch 2 6 [set corevoteBSP 23.3690853722372]
ask patch 3 6 [set corevoteBSP 27.6378178627474]
ask patch 4 6 [set corevoteBSP 17.7818666452327]
ask patch 5 6 [set corevoteBSP 19.3912942973232]
ask patch 6 6 [set corevoteBSP 44.5141906179363]
ask patch 7 6 [set corevoteBSP 8.33123851120992]
ask patch 8 6 [set corevoteBSP 8.6984534006823]
ask patch 9 6 [set corevoteBSP 23.8188284524137]
ask patch 0 7 [set corevoteBSP 20.1105325034696]
ask patch 1 7 [set corevoteBSP 21.2125594762639]
ask patch 2 7 [set corevoteBSP 25.6752142311257]
ask patch 3 7 [set corevoteBSP 29.108217595278]
ask patch 4 7 [set corevoteBSP 26.6999121382849]
ask patch 5 7 [set corevoteBSP 23.740697834479]
ask patch 6 7 [set corevoteBSP 37.8112301269215]
ask patch 7 7 [set corevoteBSP 25.3800493683115]
ask patch 8 7 [set corevoteBSP 17.7970765552749]
ask patch 9 7 [set corevoteBSP 7.94472436938201]
ask patch 0 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 24.1253847371622]
ask patch 1 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 29.2594086457456]
ask patch 2 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 30.7935605495102]
ask patch 3 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 25.1481888064439]
ask patch 4 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 12.7056642424086]
ask patch 5 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 32.8994507641976]
ask patch 6 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 49.7755825958633]
ask patch 7 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 6.35560267976201]
ask patch 8 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 2.64265295965315]
ask patch 9 0 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 33.6274106678064]
ask patch 0 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 54.3734359491903]
ask patch 1 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 33.4542922840403]
ask patch 2 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 26.6366951547769]
ask patch 3 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 28.0670120339172]
ask patch 4 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 11.0067741886036]
ask patch 5 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 37.5845362121258]
ask patch 6 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 21.8123319086529]
ask patch 7 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 17.8243507161606]
ask patch 8 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 33.4488683214743]
ask patch 9 1 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 48.7802752220049]
ask patch 0 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 39.7797292305761]
ask patch 1 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 31.6043258553981]
ask patch 2 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 26.3184148724248]
ask patch 3 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 32.5369111144677]
ask patch 4 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 13.7224185957888]
ask patch 5 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 37.1137241952526]
ask patch 6 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 31.0335056578674]
ask patch 7 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 27.4664039967681]
ask patch 8 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 25.4040927160295]
ask patch 9 2 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 28.8842432226383]
ask patch 0 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 24.7972563193555]
ask patch 1 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 22.3611390186711]
ask patch 2 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 20.7163269964044]
ask patch 3 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 17.2087172480426]
ask patch 4 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 33.4049228540318]
ask patch 5 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 32.3232014133165]
ask patch 6 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 26.8784085987417]
ask patch 7 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore -2.93465879255396]
ask patch 8 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 30.208427225443]
ask patch 9 3 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 28.5342512991605]
ask patch 0 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 57.7139924437389]
ask patch 1 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 33.8945186659932]
ask patch 2 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 23.8312531721069]
ask patch 3 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 28.1989019561628]
ask patch 4 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 16.6649302804056]
ask patch 5 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 19.4479124161956]
ask patch 6 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 21.9680398321237]
ask patch 7 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 19.2771337148621]
ask patch 8 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 10.3410317325112]
ask patch 9 4 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 14.6266885612757]
ask patch 0 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 16.0008597686919]
ask patch 1 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 6.42777540336151]
ask patch 2 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 21.5200886636633]
ask patch 3 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 22.7555616417311]
ask patch 4 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 25.8614672164216]
ask patch 5 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 15.4535909981784]
ask patch 6 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 73.2130343824136]
ask patch 7 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 13.8924542186516]
ask patch 8 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 5 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 32.1021827565931]
ask patch 0 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 27.050808324371]
ask patch 1 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 11.0521403433798]
ask patch 2 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 60.5339737015451]
ask patch 3 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 41.3777005326539]
ask patch 4 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 44.3417638363891]
ask patch 5 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 0.793699967740068]
ask patch 6 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 18.619020086245]
ask patch 8 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 28.0336135599987]
ask patch 9 6 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 28.7566407386909]
ask patch 0 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 27.7826910894929]
ask patch 1 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 52.0409679670728]
ask patch 2 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 17.7739043534445]
ask patch 3 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 10.0921590296565]
ask patch 4 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 20.8890301053532]
ask patch 5 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 32.9289410171174]
ask patch 6 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 30.7435498138252]
ask patch 7 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 38.2091508915383]
ask patch 8 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 40.0811266464912]
ask patch 9 7 [set flexvoteBJPbefore 41.1456676612929]
ask patch 0 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 0 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 1 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 2 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 3 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 4 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 5 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 6 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 1 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 2 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 3 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 4 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 5 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 6 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 7 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 8 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 9 7 [set flexvoteConbefore 0]
ask patch 0 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 0 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 1 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 2 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 3 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 4 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 5 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 6 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 7 [set flexvoteSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 0 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 1 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 2 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 3 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 4 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 5 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 6 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 0 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 1 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 2 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 3 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 4 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 5 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 6 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 7 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 8 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]
ask patch 9 7 [set flexvoteBSPbefore 0]

  
  ask patches 
  [
  set tvoteBJPbefore corevoteBJP + flexvoteBJPbefore
  set tvoteConbefore corevoteCon + flexvoteConbefore
  set tvoteSPbefore corevoteSP + flexvoteSPbefore
  set tvoteBSPbefore corevoteBSP + flexvoteBSPbefore
  set tvotebefore tvoteBJPbefore + tvoteConbefore + tvoteSPbefore + tvoteBSPbefore
  set tvoteafter tvoteBJPafter + tvoteConafter + tvoteSPafter + tvoteBSPafter
  
  ifelse tvoteBJPbefore > tvoteSPbefore and tvoteBJPbefore > tvoteBSPbefore and tvoteBJPbefore > tvoteConbefore ; sets initial MP allocation according to party
  [set MP "BJP"]
  [ifelse tvoteSPbefore > tvoteBSPbefore and tvoteSPbefore > tvoteConbefore
   [set MP "SP"]
   [ifelse tvoteBSPbefore > tvoteConbefore 
   [set MP "BSP"]
   [set MP "Con"]
  ]
  ]
  ]

   ask patches with [MP = "BJP"] [set pcolor orange] ; Colours patches according to party
   ask patches with [MP = "SP"] [set pcolor green] 
   ask patches with [MP = "BSP"] [set pcolor blue] 
   ask patches with [MP = "Con"] [set pcolor white]
   
   set BJPseats count patches with [pcolor = orange]
   set Conseats count patches with [pcolor = white]
   set SPseats count patches with [pcolor = green]
   set BSPseats count patches with [pcolor = blue]  
 
  output-type "BJPseats" output-type " - " output-print BJPseats
  output-type "Conseats" output-type " - " output-print Conseats
  output-type "SPseats" output-type " - " output-print SPseats
  output-type "BSPseats" output-type " - " output-print BSPseats
end 

to go 
  ask patches [elect]
  ask patches [showresult]
  clear-output 
  output-type "BJPseats" output-type " - " output-print BJPseats
  output-type "Conseats" output-type " - " output-print Conseats
  output-type "SPseats" output-type " - " output-print SPseats
  output-type "BSPseats" output-type " - " output-print BSPseats
end 

to elect
ifelse oppositionunity = false
[
  set flexvoteBJPafter flexvoteBJPbefore * (1 - antiincumbency)
  set tvoteBJPafter corevoteBJP + flexvoteBJPafter
  set tvoteConafter corevoteCon + ((flexvoteBJPbefore - flexvoteBJPafter) / 3)
  set tvoteSPafter corevoteSP + ((flexvoteBJPbefore - flexvoteBJPafter) / 3) 
  set tvoteBSPafter corevoteBSP + ((flexvoteBJPbefore - flexvoteBJPafter) / 3)
  set tvoteafter tvoteBJPafter + tvoteConafter + tvoteSPafter + tvoteBSPafter
]
[
  set flexvoteBJPafter flexvoteBJPbefore * (1 - antiincumbency)
  set tvoteBJPafter corevoteBJP + flexvoteBJPafter
  ifelse tvoteSPbefore > tvoteBSPbefore and tvoteSPbefore > tvoteConbefore
  [
     set tvoteSPafter corevoteSP + corevoteCon + corevoteBSP + (flexvoteBJPbefore - flexvoteBJPafter) 
     set tvoteConafter 0
     set tvoteBSPafter 0
   ]
   [
     ifelse tvoteBSPbefore > tvoteConbefore 
     [
       set tvoteBSPafter corevoteBSP + corevoteCon + corevoteSP + (flexvoteBJPbefore - flexvoteBJPafter) 
       set tvoteConafter 0
       set tvoteSPafter 0
     ]
     [
       set tvoteConafter corevoteSP + corevoteCon + corevoteBSP + (flexvoteBJPbefore - flexvoteBJPafter) 
       set tvoteSPafter 0
       set tvoteBSPafter 0
     ]
   ]
] 
end 

to showresult
  if tvoteBJPafter > tvoteSPafter and tvoteBJPafter > tvoteBSPafter and tvoteBJPafter > tvoteConafter
  [set MP "BJP"]
  if tvoteSPafter > tvoteBJPafter and tvoteSPafter > tvoteBSPafter and tvoteSPafter > tvoteConafter
  [set MP "SP"]
  if tvoteBSPafter > tvoteBJPafter and tvoteBSPafter > tvoteSPafter and tvoteBSPafter > tvoteConafter
  [set MP "BSP"]
  if tvoteConafter > tvoteBJPafter and tvoteConafter > tvoteSPafter and tvoteConafter > tvoteBSPafter
  [set MP "Con"]
  
   ask patches with [MP = "BJP"] [set pcolor orange] 
   ask patches with [MP = "SP"] [set pcolor green] 
   ask patches with [MP = "BSP"] [set pcolor blue] 
   ask patches with [MP = "Con"] [set pcolor white]
   ask patches with [MP = "tie"] [set pcolor yellow] 

   set BJPseats count patches with [pcolor = orange]
   set Conseats count patches with [pcolor = white]
   set SPseats count patches with [pcolor = green]
   set BSPseats count patches with [pcolor = blue]  
end

There is only one version of this model, created about 7 years ago by Vishesh Agarwal.

Attached files

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This model does not have any ancestors.

This model does not have any descendants.